Hit it and Quit it

[ccie]

Using your software, I have been practicing your Hit it and Quit it strategy..  I have a few questions for you:

I noticed that the your instructional video bets 2X pass line odds..  Is this by design, and if so, why not the 3X, 4X, 5X limit based on the point?

Would it make sense, on the come out roll, to bet a three way craps ($1 on ace-deuce, $1 on boxcars and $1 on eleven), as this would protect against a $25 pass bet loss if craps is rolled? (hedge the pass line bet)

Finally, I have read on several craps forums that it is recommended to bring a bankroll of at least 10X the amount bet on any one series of craps.. In your method, you start with $25 on the pass line, and $220 inside ($50 on the 5, $60 on the 6, $60 on the 8 and $50 on the 9), for start of $245.. Add to that, $50 pass line odds, and a potential for up to $240 on pressing up bets (ie, four rolls of 6, or 8, following the come out roll)..  So, any one series of craps could be as has as $535 ($245 + $50 + $240), and that would be a $5400 bankroll..  Do you agree with 10X bankroll recommendation?

Thanks

ccie
 

[Alan Gruskoff]

Hi ccie

Thanks for trying the game.

To answer your questions, first this was just one example of a way to play. Everybody will adapt their own style, of course.

Q1)

I noticed that the your instructional video bets 2X pass line odds..  Is this by design, and if so, why not the 3X, 4X, 5X limit based on the point?

This is just personal, so that the Pass/Odds amount are close to the Place amounts. If you go with Max Odds, thats another style completely. Depends on how much you are willing to risk on good shooters. Now, a TRUE Hit it & Quit it style would be to avoid the pass line completely, Place 5,6,8,9 and take down after 4 rolls.

Q2)

Would it make sense, on the come out roll, to bet a three way craps ($1 on ace-deuce, $1 on boxcars and $1 on eleven), as this would protect against a $25 pass bet loss if craps is rolled? (hedge the pass line bet)

I see this a lot from players with "some" clues at live tables. All the above Proposition Bets (2,3,12) are BAD BETS at 11% House Advantage. Making them at come out time doesnt make them suddenly good bets. Sevens and Elevens come up WAY more than 2,3,12. As a Dont Pass Player I have an 18% house advantage to fight on Come Out. As a Pass Line Player, you have that 18% Advantage on your side. You dont need to make bad bets to hedge that.

Q3) How much money should you bring? - All you are willing to lose. Certainly agree that you should risk about 10% of your Rail, thats good money management. The example in Video shows risking $245 of a $1000 Rail, so very risky. You get 3 or 4 quick Sevens, and you are wiped out!

Thanks for your good questions. And watch out for them Sevens!
- Big Al

[ccie]

Thank you for your prompt response..

Q1)
Quote from: ccie on January 11, 2009, 12:00:23 PM
I noticed that the your instructional video bets 2X pass line odds..  Is this by design, and if so, why not the 3X, 4X, 5X limit based on the point?

This is just personal, so that the Pass/Odds amount are close to the Place amounts. If you go with Max Odds, thats another style completely. Depends on how much you are willing to risk on good shooters. Now, a TRUE Hit it & Quit it style would be to avoid the pass line completely, Place 5,6,8,9 and take down after 4 rolls.

I see.. I suppose the same holds true with amount of units placed (ie, $25 instead of $50, or $30 instead of $60)

Q2)
Quote from: ccie on January 11, 2009, 12:00:23 PM
Would it make sense, on the come out roll, to bet a three way craps ($1 on ace-deuce, $1 on boxcars and $1 on eleven), as this would protect against a $25 pass bet loss if craps is rolled? (hedge the pass line bet)

I see this a lot from players with "some" clues at live tables. All the above Proposition Bets (2,3,12) are BAD BETS at 11% House Advantage. Making them at come out time doesnt make them suddenly good bets. Sevens and Elevens come up WAY more than 2,3,12. As a Dont Pass Player I have an 18% house advantage to fight on Come Out. As a Pass Line Player, you have that 18% Advantage on your side. You dont need to make bad bets to hedge that.

John Patrick's system reccommends hedging to "minimize" the potential for a loss, sacraficing a bit of potential winning..  In this case, if the the 2,3,12 hits on the come out roll, the $15, or $30 win offsets the $25 loss.. if the 7 or 11 is rolled the net payout is $22 instead of $25.. (due to the $3 loss on the hedge)..  If I am understanding you correctly, the house edge always supersedes the hedge strategy on the come out roll, because it is a ONE ROLL bet... What about for the hedge strategy for the don't pass better?  For example, say the 4 becomes the point.. Would a 4 hardway hedge be a good strategy to protect a bit against the loss if a 4 is rolled?

Q3) How much money should you bring? - All you are willing to lose. Certainly agree that you should risk about 10% of your Rail, thats good money management. The example in Video shows risking $245 of a $1000 Rail, so very risky. You get 3 or 4 quick Sevens, and you are wiped out!

I was always a bit confused about the "10% of the rail money management rule".. It seems to be rooted in the notion that one out of every 10 shooters will get long roll..  Not sure what math supports that, but I have been practicing your Hit It and Quit It with a $2100 rail, and it has been working out Ok..  We'll see what happens in AC  

Thanks for your good questions. And watch out for them Sevens!


- Big Al

[Alan Gruskoff]

What I take that 10% to mean is that your buy for $1000, you bet only $100 each pass. Seems cautious.  Expecting a good shooter has nothing to with it. The game on computer and on a live table will give you around 60-70% Seven Outs, so temper your risk knowing that.

Good Luck in A.C. I am taking Steve Wynn up on a lovely Comp for 3 nights at the new Encore Las Vegas, next week...
- Big Al

I was always a bit confused about the "10% of the rail money management rule".. It seems to be rooted in the notion that one out of every 10 shooters will get long roll..  Not sure what math supports that, but I have been practicing your Hit It and Quit It with a $2100 rail, and it has been working out Ok..  We'll see what happens in AC  

[ccie]

I notice that the My Craps Game software doesn't support "Lay" bets.

Will there be a future release at some point, and will it allow Lay bets?

ccie

[Alan Gruskoff]

I notice that the My Craps Game software doesn't support "Lay" bets.
Will there be a future release at some point, and will it allow Lay bets?
ccie

Simple answer - No. Version 1.2, the one you have is the final release. While I concede that Lay bets are on all major casino's tables, I have only seen 1 guy ever make that bet. The guy who lost $9500 in 20 minutes. Its a bad bet, rarely used, you can do very nicely with the mainstream bets. Try the Dont Come bet for better Odds, which you can take down if you dont want to be against 6 or 8 for instance.